Global Economic Damage Estimate from Climate Change Revised, But Remains Severe

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– Revised Nature climate‑economy study

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– Potsdam Institute corrections global impact

A widely publicized study originally published in Nature projected that global economic output could decline by 19% by 2050 due to climate change, with total annual losses around US $38 trillion (2005 PPP). These losses were estimated to be six times higher than the cost of limiting warming to 2°C.

However, following peer critique—particularly arising from anomalous data bias originating in Uzbekistan—the authors at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have revised their analysis. The updated findings now estimate a slightly lower—but still substantial—17% decline in global economic output, with total projected damages of US $32 trillion annually. The original conclusion holds: climate-related economic damages are significant, disproportionately affecting lower-income regions, and far exceed mitigation costs.

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