Australia’s Climate Risk Report Warns: Crossing 1.5 °C Will Trigger Severe Consequences

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– New National Assessment Urges Immediate Shift Away from Fossil Fuels

– Even Slight Warming Beyond 1.5 °C Poses Exponential Risks to Australia & Pacific Neighbours

– COP30 & Future NDCs Under Pressure to Reflect Science, Justice, and Urgent Action

Australia’s Labor government released its first National Climate Risk Assessment on September 15, 2025, sounding a stark warning: the country is already nearing the 1.5 °C warming threshold, and surpassing it could unleash “cascading, compounding, and concurrent” threats. The report models what warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C might bring, showing that even the smallest increase above 1.5 °C substantially worsens damage to ecosystems, communities, and the economy. Importantly, it highlights Australia’s own vulnerabilities—bushfires, coastal erosion, heat extremes—as well as the impact on Pacific neighbours facing rising seas and stronger storms.

Advocates, including those from 350.org, argue that the report demands more than just rhetoric. They are calling for:1. A new, more ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aligned with keeping warming under 1.5 °C.2. No further approvals for coal, oil, or gas projects — especially ones that contravene the science and pose harm to both people and ecosystems.3. Leveraging upcoming forums like COP30 to secure global agreements on fossil fuel phase-out and stronger climate finance for affected regions.

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