SEO Riders:
– Global models underestimate mitigation potential in agriculture, forestry, and land-use (AFOLU) by ignoring critical factors.
– Strategies like afforestation and BECCS may strain water and food systems, affecting millions.
– Researchers urge integrated planning that aligns emissions reduction with food security and water resilience.
A recent analysis highlights that land-based mitigation measures, including afforestation, bioenergy with carbon capture (BECCS), and soil carbon management, are frequently underrepresented in climate modelling—creating a “blind spot” that risks overlooking up to 25% of global emissions reduction potential. The underestimation stems from limited model integration of land, water, and food systems, ignoring how large-scale land-use shifts can affect hydrology and wellbeing. As a result, predicted mitigation benefits often fail to consider cross-sector trade-offs or regional constraints.
Moreover, reliance on land-based carbon removal strategies without careful design could exacerbate food insecurity—one study estimates afforestation and BECCS could place 26–42 million people at increased hunger risk by 2050. Experts stress that scalable carbon mitigation requires inclusive socio-economic development and equitable access across low- and middle-income regions. Modeling shows that when global inequality persists, even ambitious AFOLU policies fall short of the Paris Agreement goals unless accompanied by systemic reform.
