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– Warming will extend mosquito habitat, causing up to 554,000 extra malaria deaths.
– Nigeria projected as one of the hardest-hit countries by shifting transmission zones.
– Experts urge blending climate action, innovation, and funding to save progress.
A recent EnviroNews Nigeria report highlights the alarming threat posed by climate change to the global effort to eliminate malaria by 2030. According to modeling from the Target Malaria consortium and the Malaria Atlas Project, an additional 554,000 malaria deaths could occur in Africa between 2030 and 2049 if warming trends continue. This surge will likely be driven by rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and extreme weather events like floods and droughts that expand mosquito breeding zones and weaken control measures by disrupting supply chains and healthcare services.
Nigeria is anticipated to be among the most affected nations, as climate-driven changes reshape traditional malaria hotspots. Experts warn that established tools—such as insecticide-treated nets and antimalarial drugs—are losing effectiveness due to environmental instability and increasing insecticide resistance. In response, researchers advocate for a dual strategy: reducing emissions and warming while ramping up innovative solutions like gene drive technology, next-generation nets, and vaccine rollout. Without significant action on climate and public health fronts, the hard-won gains against malaria risk a worrying reversal.